I understand that the threat is low, but it is simply better for security and privacy reasons.
It's as simple as changing http:// link to https:// - No heavy work involved.
I would be very happy if you could reconsider this.
It's trivial to describe any number of threat models for downloading updates over HTTP. The simplest is that of a user who opens VLC while on public wi-fi, where an attacker could intercept the connection and serve a malicious update payload without the user's knowledge. VLC verifies the downloaded update package using a home-rolled GPG signature check implementation (and against a 1024-bit DSA key, which isn't considered up to modern cryptographic security standards), but if the update blob indicates a key other than the hardcoded one, it downloads the requested public key from the VLC update server over HTTP and does nothing further to verify the key itself. This means that all an attacker would have to do to serve a malicious update would be to sign it with their own key, then serve the matching public key when VLC requests it. Unless I'm missing some major additional protection, this is a serious issue.