The jitter for the DVD has gotten to the point of appearing to be skipping frames and the speed of the pan or direction of the pan is not relevant anymore. Messages is blank! I have noticed the MPlayer is also a bit worse but the sync is different here so the issue is not going to be the same even though it also uses ffmpeg, which may be the real issue here.
If I could identify the increased jitter in MPEG 2 I would offer some clue as to why it seems to be getting worse. The only thing that makes any sense is it's an ffmpeg issue. I will try looking a bit deeper. But please remember messages is not being helpful here.
Edit: After playing with ffmpeg using ffplayer the issue in VLC with MPEG 2 (DVD) does indeed appear to be ffmpeg. Mplayer shows jumps every couple of minutes but this is probably due to it's sync method as it too has been slowly getting worse in this regard with each revision.